The Problem
Small numbers of primary voters with extremist views ― on both the far right and the far left ― now determine who gets elected to Congress. How can that be? Don’t general elections determine the winner? Not anymore.
Underlying Dynamics
Two developments have now made primaries all-important: the spread of gerrymandering and the fragmentation of our media as a result of cable and broadband.
Gerrymandering of district maps is now so widespread that only about 10% of House races were considered competitive in 2024. Since gerrymandering all but guarantees general election outcomes, whoever wins the primary of the favored party is the ultimate winner in the House.
The voters who turn out for primaries are a very small slice of the electorate, only about 10% of eligible voters, and they are the most extreme and exceptionally uncompromising on both the right and the left.
These rigid tendencies are created and fueled by our now highly fragmented media. People can now watch siloed channels that only serve to reinforce their beliefs with emotional content designed to bait, hook and enrage them. This media factor is the most important factor in Senate races. Gerrymandering cannot be done in Senate races since they are state-wide and states can’t redraw their borders at will.
Despite their small numbers and unrepresentative profile, these are now the voters who actually determine who gets elected to Congress. As a result, members of Congress are disproportionately beholden to these fringe voters.
The Consequences
This new reality has serious negative consequences.
- It creates the hyper partisanship that makes Congress dysfunctional.
- It prevents important initiatives from being legislated despite broad public support.
- It enables the threat of being “primaried out.” If an incumbent steps out of line, that party can reliably eliminate that incumbent in the primary by running another more extreme and pliable candidate with assured appeal to these primary voters. This guts Congress’s will to curb Executive Branch over-reach, one of the critical checks and balances protecting our democracy.
- It makes party agendas increasingly extreme to appeal to the voters who give the parties this power.
Poorly Understood
Few Americans understand how critical primaries have become. Most skip primaries altogether; only 10% of eligible voters turn out for primaries versus 40% – 60% turnout for general elections. Studies say that this is because they believe that the general election is what matters most.
The Problem
Underlying Dynamics
Two developments have now made primaries all-important: the spread of gerrymandering and the fragmentation of our media as a result of cable and broadband.
Gerrymandering of district maps is now so widespread that only about 10% of House races were considered competitive in 2024. Since gerrymandering all but guarantees general election outcomes, whoever wins the primary of the favored party is the ultimate winner in the House.
The voters who turn out for primaries are a very small slice of the electorate, only about 10% of eligible voters, and they are the most extreme and exceptionally uncompromising on both the right and the left.
These rigid tendencies are fueled by our now highly fragmented media. People can now watch siloed channels that only serve to reinforce their beliefs with emotional content designed to bait, hook and enrage them.
Despite their small numbers and unrepresentative profile, these are now the voters who actually determine who gets elected to Congress. As a result, members of Congress are disproportionately beholden to these fringe voters.
The Consequences
This new reality has serious negative consequences.
- It creates the hyper partisanship that makes Congress dysfunctional.
- It prevents important initiatives from being legislated despite broad public support.
- It enables the threat of being “primaried out.” If an incumbent steps out of line, that party can reliably eliminate that incumbent in the primary by running another more extreme and pliable candidate with assured appeal to these primary voters. This guts Congress’s will to curb Executive Branch over-reach, one of the critical checks and balances protecting our democracy.
- It makes party agendas increasingly extreme to appeal to the voters who give the parties this power.
Poorly Understood
Few Americans understand how critical primaries have become. Most skip primaries altogether; only 10% of eligible voters turn out for primaries versus 40% – 60% turnout for general elections. Studies say that this is because they believe that the general election is what matters most.